When India Meteorological Department released its latest weather advisory on October 11, 2025, the nation got a mixed bag: the southwest monsoon beginning to pull back from a swath of central states while the south braced for a bout of heavy rain, and the north felt a sudden chill.
Monsoon withdrawal across central India
The IMD’s bulletin, issued at 1300 hrs IST, flagged a retreat of the monsoon over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Telangana, West Bengal and Sikkim over the next two to three days. Officials say the withdrawal is linked to a weakening cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, marking the end of the seasonal downpour that has fed the country’s grain belts for weeks.
“We’re seeing a clear dip in moisture flux across the central plateau,” said Dr. R. K. Singh, senior meteorologist at the IMD, during a press briefing. “Farmers should prep for a short dry spell before the northeast monsoon kicks in later this month.”
Southern India braces for heavy rainfall
From October 12 through 17, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are set to receive light to moderate rain, but pockets of the states could see downpours exceeding 70 mm in a single day. South‑interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema are also on the radar for thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 30‑40 km/h.
The lingering low‑pressure system, the remnant of Cyclonic Storm ‘Shakti’, has been dragging moist air inland since early October 8. While Shakti has been downgraded to a benign low, its moisture legacy lingers, especially along the Western Ghats where orographic lift amplifies rainfall.
- Expected rainfall: 64.5‑115.5 mm in Kerala districts over 24 hours.
- Wind gusts: up to 55 km/h along coastal stretches.
- Fishing bans: enforced for Kerala, Karnataka, and Lakshadweep.
Kerala under yellow alert
On Sunday, October 12, the IMD placed Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Palakkad, Malappuram and Wayanad in a yellow alert zone. Residents can expect heavy rain—up to 11 cm in 24 hours—accompanied by lightning and gusty breezes that could knock down weak structures.
Local fisherman’s union leader V. Ramanathan warned, “The sea is too rough. We’ve seen waves breaching 2 m and wind speeds hitting 45 km/h. Staying ashore is the safest call.” Authorities have indeed barred fishing boats from the Kerala and Karnataka coasts, and warned that Lakshadweep’s small islands face similar turbulence.
Northern India feels the chill
Meanwhile, the capital region—Delhi‑NCR—has seen daytime highs dip to 30‑31 °C and night‑time lows slide to 18‑19 °C, thanks to a fresh westerly breeze clocking around 12 km/h. No rain is forecast for the region until after Diwali, giving residents a crisp, dry spell just in time for the festival lights.
“This early cool snap is typical of the transition from the southwest to the northeast monsoon,” explained Prof. Anjali Mehta, climate analyst at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “If the pattern holds, Delhi could see sub‑20 °C nights by early November, which is a boon for energy consumption.”
Expert insights and future outlook
Looking ahead, the IMD anticipates the northeast monsoon arriving over Kerala by mid‑October, potentially amplifying rainfall totals by another 20‑30 mm. In the east, Odisha and West Bengal will see scattered thunderstorms through October 13, with gusts similar to those in the south.
“The key takeaway is preparedness,” Dr. Singh reiterated. “From reinforcing drainage in flood‑prone districts to issuing timely alerts for fishermen, coordinated action can mitigate damage.” As the country moves from the retreating southwest monsoon to the nascent northeast phase, the next two weeks will be a critical test of India’s disaster‑response machinery.
Frequently Asked Questions
How will the monsoon retreat affect farmers in central India?
The short‑term dry spell will likely stress rabi‑crop sowing, especially for pulses and oilseeds. However, experts say the upcoming northeast monsoon should bring enough rain by late October to replenish soil moisture, provided farmers adjust planting dates accordingly.
What precautions should residents of Kerala take during the yellow alert?
Authorities recommend securing loose objects, avoiding low‑lying areas prone to flash flooding, and staying indoors during thunderstorms. Fishermen are advised to remain ashore, and motorists should watch for water‑logged roads, especially on highways connecting Palakkad and Idukki.
Why isn’t Delhi expecting rain until after Diwali?
The retreating southwest monsoon has already pulled its moisture northward, and the nascent northeast monsoon has yet to make landfall in the Gangetic plains. As a result, dry, cool conditions will dominate Delhi‑NCR through the festival period.
What is the connection between Cyclonic Storm ‘Shakti’ and the current rains?
Although ‘Shakti’ downgraded to a low‑pressure area on October 8, its residual vorticity continues to draw moist Arabian Sea air inland. This lingering circulation fuels the thunderstorms and heavy showers now sweeping across southern and eastern states.
When is the northeast monsoon expected to arrive in Kerala?
Meteorologists forecast the northeast monsoon to set in by the second week of October, typically around the 15th‑17th. Its arrival should bolster rainfall totals, particularly in the coastal districts, and may extend the period of wet weather into November.
